This article analyses the consequences of global geopolitical shifts for the countries of the South Caucasus, with a particular focus on Azerbaijan’s role in ensuring regional resilience, energy security, and logistical connectivity. It examines the main challenges arising from the Russia–Ukraine conflict, the growing U.S.–China rivalry, and escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Special attention is given to Azerbaijan’s multi-vector foreign policy, its partnership with Turkey and the EU, and opportunities for post-conflict regional development. The article concludes by highlighting Azerbaijan’s increasing importance in shaping a new Eurasian architecture.
In the 21st century, the South Caucasus remains a region where the interests of major global and regional powers intersect. Recent events – including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the intensifying confrontation between Israel and Iran, and the growing rivalry between the United States and China – are forming a new geopolitical reality that increasingly impacts Azerbaijan and its neighbours. Under these conditions, Azerbaijan demonstrates a model of balanced, multi-vector foreign policy that allows it to maintain resilience, enhance its international standing, and ensure internal stability and development.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which escalated sharply in 2022, has fundamentally changed the strategic landscape of Eurasia. The intensification of sanctions against Russia, Europe’s shift in energy policy, and the growing interest of the United States and the EU in alternative transport and energy routes have directly affected the South Caucasus. In this context, Azerbaijan has become a key partner in ensuring the region’s energy and logistics security. In 2022, a new memorandum of strategic energy cooperation between Azerbaijan and the European Union was signed, aiming to double gas supplies by 2027.
The United States, traditionally active in the South Caucasus in the context of security and democracy, has increased its focus on the region through soft power tools and support for economic projects. Azerbaijan cooperates with American institutions in the fields of energy, combating transnational threats, and enhancing regional resilience, while maintaining dialogue with Russia, China, Turkey, and the Islamic world.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) plays a significant role in transforming Eurasian logistics. The South Caucasus, especially Azerbaijan, is becoming part of the Middle Corridor, linking China with Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Turkey. Amid disruptions to northern and southern routes, this corridor is gaining primary importance.
Azerbaijan has invested heavily in the development of its transport infrastructure: the Baku Port in Alat, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, logistics digitalisation projects, and the creation of a special economic zone. This enables the country to become a key hub in global logistics, offering a reliable and secure alternative to traditional routes. The promising Zangezur Corridor, if fully implemented, will further strengthen Azerbaijan’s position as a bridge between East and West.
Georgia remains a key logistics and energy partner for Azerbaijan. Major corridors, both railways (BTK) and pipelines (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, Baku-Supsa, and the Southern Gas Corridor), pass through Georgian territory. Close cooperation between the two countries in logistics, energy, and digital technologies enhances the region’s resilience and competitiveness amid global uncertainty.
Political stability in Georgia creates favourable conditions for expanding transit capacity and attracting new investments. Joint efforts by Baku and Tbilisi to modernise infrastructure and reduce logistics costs ensure the smooth flow of goods and boost the importance of the Middle Corridor.
Azerbaijan’s relations with Turkey deserve special attention. These ties are not only historical and cultural but are also reflected in strategic alliance, formalised by the Shusha Declaration (2021). Turkey has become not only a military and political partner of Azerbaijan but also a strong advocate in the international arena—at the UN, OIC, and the Organisation of Turkic States, as well as in matters of security and economic cooperation.
Turkey’s geopolitical influence in Eurasia is growing. Amid the weakening of other players, Ankara is reinforcing its presence in the South Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Middle East. This creates favourable conditions for Azerbaijan as Turkey’s closest ally and simultaneously as an independent actor leveraging the Turkish vector to enhance its regional standing.
For three decades, Armenia remained geopolitically isolated, becoming a kind of “logistical dead end” in the region. The absence of diplomatic relations with Turkey, closed borders, and the conflict with Azerbaijan restricted its participation in regional economic initiatives. However, following the 44-day war in 2020 and the full restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, new opportunities have opened up in the regional architecture.
If a comprehensive peace agreement is signed with Azerbaijan, Armenia will have a chance to integrate into transport and energy projects, including becoming part of East-West transit routes. Normalising relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey could bring Armenia economic benefits, investment, and infrastructure opportunities. Georgia’s example demonstrates how close cooperation with Azerbaijan can transform a country’s economy and international status.
Azerbaijan remains a reliable energy supplier. The Southern Gas Corridor has become an essential element of Europe’s energy security. Amid reduced gas supplies from Russia, Baku has offered additional volumes and confirmed its readiness to engage in long-term energy partnerships.
At the same time, Azerbaijan seeks to develop renewable energy projects. In cooperation with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Europe, solar and wind stations are being implemented, opening prospects for exporting “green energy” to Europe. This aligns with global climate goals and strengthens Azerbaijan’s image as a responsible and modern player in the global energy architecture.
The victory in the 44-day war of 2020 became a turning point in Azerbaijan’s history. The full restoration of the country’s territorial integrity and the establishment of sovereignty over Karabakh were recognised by the international community and strengthened national unity. Today, Azerbaijan is actively engaged in the reconstruction of liberated territories: roads, homes, schools, hospitals, universities, and airports are being built; electricity and water supply are being restored; and people are returning to their ancestral homes.
Importantly, Baku is implementing these processes in line with international norms, focusing on sustainable development, environmental safety, and humanitarian aspects. This contributes to Azerbaijan’s positive post-conflict image and strengthens its diplomatic standing.
Azerbaijan maintains a rare balance in foreign policy. While developing a strategic partnership with Turkey, Baku simultaneously sustains pragmatic and constructive relations with Russia, China, the European Union, the United States, Iran, and the Muslim world. This multi-vector approach ensures the country’s autonomy, flexibility, and resilience amid global turbulence.
By positioning itself as a bridge between East and West, Azerbaijan is pursuing a “middle path” strategy, reinforcing its status as a sovereign state and a responsible international actor.
Amid global transformations, the South Caucasus is becoming a space not only of challenges but of new opportunities. The intensifying rivalry between global powers, revision of transport routes, energy transitions, and the growing importance of regional resilience bring this geographically compact yet strategically vital region into the international spotlight.
Against this backdrop, Azerbaijan demonstrates its ability to adapt effectively to the changing dynamics of world politics. The restoration of territorial integrity, active post-conflict reconstruction, renewable energy development, integration into the Belt and Road Initiative, cooperation with the EU and Turkey, and constructive dialogue with Iran, Russia, and the U.S. – all point to the maturity of the country’s foreign policy strategy.
This line of continuity – from strategic vision to its geopolitical implementation – is traced in the actions of Azerbaijan’s leaders. Heydar Aliyev, by implementing the “Contract of the Century” and ensuring the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, elevated the country to the global stage as a reliable energy supplier and the architect of a new energy map of Eurasia. This step laid a solid foundation for Azerbaijan’s economic independence and its weight in foreign policy. Decades later, Ilham Aliyev, building on this foundation, gave it a new – geopolitical and strategic – dimension. The Washington meeting on 8 August 2025, culminating in the signing of the Joint Declaration with Armenia, the initialling of the peace agreement, the joint appeal to close the OSCE Minsk Group, and the launch of the “Trump Route” (TRIPP) project, became a historic milestone. The United States, for the first time, consolidated its presence in the South Caucasus as a guarantor of stability and security, while the region itself gained a chance for lasting peace and integration into new transit and economic formats. This event, comparable in significance to the “Contract of the Century” but in the political-strategic sphere, definitively affirmed Azerbaijan’s role as a key architect of the change in the region’s geopolitical architecture.
Azerbaijan is not merely reacting to changes but shaping them by building transport and energy corridors, forming a security architecture, and offering a balanced model of international conduct. Azerbaijan’s example shows how a mid-sized state can become a reliable partner for multiple power centres and act as a link between East and West, North and South.
At a time when many regions face destabilisation, Azerbaijan offers an alternative—a path of development based on sovereignty, pragmatism, mutual respect, and a reasonable balance of interests. This makes it not only a stable regional actor but also a potential mediator, a stabilising force in a complex international environment, and a player of global relevance.
Sidqi SHEVKET, Ph.D.
Centre for Geopolitical and Legal Analysis: Transatlantic Perspective
