The UK asylum backlog — the number of claims awaiting an initial decision from the Home Office — stood at 165,000 in August 2026, according to Home Office published statistics. The median time from claim submission to initial decision has risen to 22 months, compared with 10 months in 2019 and 14 months when Labour took office in July 2024.
Internal Home Office data obtained by Exposed News through a Subject Access Request to a former employee and corroborated by a current caseworker who spoke on condition of anonymity, shows that average caseworker productivity — measured as initial decisions completed per caseworker per month — fell by 31% between the first quarter of 2024 and the same period in 2026.
Why Productivity Has Fallen
The internal data identifies three primary factors. First, the shift from predominantly Afghan and Syrian caseloads — where established country guidance means decisions can be made more rapidly — to a more complex and varied caseload including significant volumes from Eritrea, Iran, Sudan, and Vietnam, where country guidance is more frequently contested and updated. Second, increased rates of judicial review challenges, which require caseworkers to spend time preparing legal responses. Third, high staff turnover: the Home Office Asylum and Human Rights unit had a 34% annual staff turnover rate in 2025/26, leading to a persistently high proportion of caseworkers in their first 12 months, when productivity is materially lower.
The Cost of the Backlog
The Home Office accommodation cost for asylum seekers awaiting a decision — primarily hotel and contingency accommodation — ran at £8.4 million per day as of June 2026, according to a written ministerial statement. The annual cost, if sustained, would exceed £3 billion. The government has committed to ending hotel use by 2028 through expansion of alternative accommodation; the National Audit Office noted in a September 2026 report that this target was “unlikely to be achieved on current trajectory.”